Fuente Web |
Davos is
where world leaders preen and articulate grand visions in a glamorous setting
that beckons with powdery snow and shiny klieg lights. The annual meeting, high
in the Swiss Alps, is the ultimate gathering of the global elite.
Last year,
the Davos scene was marked by grand entrances and ambitious power politics.
President Trump became the first U.S. leader to visit in 18 years. Prime
Minister Narendra Modi became India's first leader to speak at Davos in two
decades. The leaders of the world's two largest democracies had swagger,
arriving with large entourages of top officials.
A year
later, many of the same leaders who preened in 2018 are licking their wounds in
a world where the outlook seems a bit darker and economic fears are rising.
Last year,
Trump delivered the keynote address at the annual gathering of the World
Economic Forum. He had just completed a year as CEO of America and leader of an
economic superpower. He had reason to feel good, having scored a big victory,
marshaling a massive tax cut package through Congress. The stock market had
been giving him a big thumbs-up with massive gains for over a year.
In two
weeks, Trump heads to Davos as the leader of a country where the government has
shut down. His party suffered a bruising defeat in the elections, ceding power
in the House of Representatives. The stock market has in recent weeks had the
kind of roller-coaster ride that would make even a seasoned participant sick —
with the Dow teetering, often by as much as 800 points on a single day.
India's
prime minister, meanwhile, last year talked about the importance of global ties
and highlighted India's democratic edge over China. Modi had reason to feel
confident. The party he leads held power in almost every major state in India.
But things have shifted. And not in his favor. His Hindu nationalist party
suffered an embarrassing defeat in three state elections in December.
Modi and
Trump are not alone in facing the winds of change. Fresh from electoral victory
in his own country, France's President Emmanuel Macron last year gave one of
the longest speech among world leaders. It lasted about an hour and was
delivered in both English and French. His message to Davos was simple: France
is back. When he ended, he was greeted by a standing ovation.
Today,
what's back in France are images of revolt. A "yellow vest" rebellion
has overtaken the streets of Paris, and the wide boulevards of the
Champs-Elysees have become the scene of torched cars. While riding high last
year, Macron said that the country's rigid rules need to be more flexible. He
pledged to make France "a model in the fight against climate change."
This year, with the streets ablaze, Macron gave into the demands of protesters,
scrapping a controversial gas tax. His favorability ratings have plummeted.
Last year,
Britain's leader, Prime Minister Theresa May was already facing trouble. She
offered none of Macron's soaring optimism; attendees were reported leaving the
hall even before her speech ended. Now May's life is even tougher. Just weeks
ago, the Brexit process devolved into chaos after a deal May had negotiated
with the European Union led to members of a her own party triggering a vote to
unseat her as its leader. She survived it.
So, the
annual gathering of the World Economic Forum is happening at a time when many
leaders are facing challenges to their might. That usually leads them to focus
inward rather than outward, not something that the global elite wants to see.
The other
overriding issue: The world economy is starting to look a little shaky. Even
though the U.S. economy is still riding high — with low unemployment and
employers on a hiring spree — some other parts of the globe aren't looking so
good. For instance, in the third quarter, the economies of eurozone powerhouse
Germany and also the world's third-largest economy Japan had contracted. Then
last week, Apple starkly warned of weak iPhone sales and this week, rival
Samsung said profits will fall by nearly a third, stoking fears over the health
of the global economy and the effects of the bruising trade battle between the
U.S. and China. All this has rattled financial markets greatly.
A global
slowdown is the last thing a meeting of globalists wants on the agenda. Trump
has confirmed he is going to Davos. It's unclear if any of these other leaders
will, given how different their world feels. The winds have shifted.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario