 |
| Foto: GLO |
The
Interviewer: Klaus F. Zimmermann/GLO President. Hardy and Zimmermann have been
both Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center Resident Scholars in Fall 2017.
Zimmermann has written the Preface in the book: Text.
GLO: Globalization seems to be under political
pressure around the globe. How does it affect Latin America?
Alfredo Toro Hardy: Two powerful forces are measuring their
strength by acting upon globalization.
One of them pushes globalization forward, while the other hinders its
advance and promotes its demise. At this point in time, it is not clear which
of them will end up prevailing.
China’s
economic umbrella and Asia’s middle class, whose expansion is estimated to
represent 80 percent of the world’s middle class increase up to 2030, remain as
the fundamental driving forces of globalization. On the other hand, though, we
find populism and the displacement that disruptive technologies bring with
them. While populism creates boundaries and discourages free trade, the Fourth
Industrial Revolution advances towards a decoupling between developed and
developing economies. Under these two very different but converging impulses,
globalization is bound to loose ground.
Uncertainty
hinders Latin America’s strategic vision. If the future entailed a re-launching
of globalization, it would seem obvious that the region should follow along its
lines, positioning itself in the best possible terms so as to increase its
potential benefits. However, if globalization is entering into a declining
phase, Latin America would need to look for options.
Latin
America faces, therefore, not only a dramatic uncertainty as a result of forces
beyond its control, but also the need to anticipate, to the best of its
abilities, unforeseen events to which it will have to act or react upon.
Alfredo Toro Hardy: As said, Latin America finds itself at the
crossroads of the pro and the anti globalization forces. Were the rules of the
game to change now, the region would certainly suffer. Uncertainty, however, is
an even greater challenge because positioning itself and planning ahead amid
conflicting signs, becomes extremely difficult.
Globalization
emerged as a result of political intention and technological feasibility. Now,
it finds itself seriously challenged for the very same reasons. In both cases,
political intention and technological feasibility are clearly identified with
developed economies.
What kind
of route map can Latin America follow amid this confusing situation? To begin
with, it is necessary to analyze the forces that push for and against
globalization, trying to measure their respective strength, convergence
capacity, and potential impact. This requires, at the same time, looking into
the flaws, weaknesses and contradictions of such forces. With these elements in
hand, it might be easier to envisage where the trends are leading to and, by
extension, where Latin America might end up standing.
However,
there seems to be no alternative to playing in both directions, with the aim of
minimizing costs and maximizing opportunities. Within this highly fluid
situation, pragmatism, resilience, creativeness, imagination, and the joining
together of Latin American forces, will have to guide the region’s actions in
the foreseeable future.
Alfredo Toro Hardy: The curious equation formed by protectionism,
populism, political rage, algorithms, deep learning, robots, 3D printing,
nanotechnology, indoor and vertical farming, an emerging post animal food
industry, and renewable energy, among other elements, may end up suctioning the
oxygen of globalization. It is not only that trade barriers emerge, but that it
will make no sense to look for cheaper manufactures, products or services afar,
when it would become possible to generate them locally at competitive prices.
A
decoupling world economy, like the one that may emerge under such equation,
presents no benefit for Latin America. Finding a path under such scenario would
become extremely stressful and challenging. However, globalization has not been
a rose garden for the region. Much to the contrary, it has imposed upon it the
need to reconvert into labor-intensive manufacturing or to go back in time to
commodities producing. Both of those options have being far from satisfactory.
A
globalization that becomes profitable for Latin America would entail the
possibility of overcoming such limitations, while opening a path towards a much
more international service oriented economy and a more value added
manufacturing. Unfortunately, at this point in time options are narrowing not
widening.
