OPEC Lowers Demand Forecast Despite Increased Consumption

lunes 20 de julio de 2015

The group, which controls roughly a third of world oil supply, said in its latest monthly market report that oil demand in 2015 was now expected to grow by 1.28 million barrels per day (bpd), following an upward revision of 100,000 barrels from its last report. Rising consumption in China and the developing world is expected to help mop up some of the excess supply in the market.

It exported almost 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude at its peak, before Western sanctions over its alleged ambitions to build a nuclear bomb saw shipments collapse to about a million bpd over the last 2-1/2 years. The strategy is taking time to have an impact, with crude prices remaining 46 percent below year-ago levels and annual US production forecast to reach a 45-year high.

Both countries also produce condensate and natural gas liquids that arguably make them larger oil producers than Saudi Arabia, but neither produce or export as much crude as the Kingdom.

“This would imply an improvement towards a more balanced market”, OPEC economists said in a report cited by Reuters. The Paris-based adviser forecast no growth in non-OPEC supply next year.

The slowing investments into new oil projects will slow down global production, but OPEC may continue its mammoth production. This data included a lower figure for Saudi production of 10.235 million barrels a day.

OPEC said its share of the world’s oil production grew by 0.4 percent to 33.4 percent last month.

Outside of the cartel, non-OPEC countries will probably put out a combined 300,000 barrels a day next year, down from 860,000 barrels a day this year.

Oil output in the US, which has seen a rapid increase over the past five years thanks to the huge development of shale resources, is expected to log a modest growth during 2016.

But that growth came mostly from United States shale-oil fields. Brent, the worldwide standard, fell 90 cents to $57.83 a barrel in mid-day trading on the ICE Futures Europe. Opec delegates say it is unlikely that Opec will reverse its policy and cut production then, preferring to wait until after December to assess the impact of additional oil from Iran on the market.

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