Why Venezuela keeps Colombia’s president up at night, by Franco Ordoñez

Fuente Web

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has confided to the White House that one of his biggest concerns is how a Venezuelan collapse could undermine years of secret meetings and formal negotiations to end the bloody civil war that killed thousands in his country over more than half a century.

Already, Venezuela’s economic and humanitarian crisis has driven thousands across the border into Colombia in search of jobs, food and safety. Santos and many other Colombian leaders fear that a complete collapse in Venezuela could lead to chaos in Colombian border communities precisely as the government is trying to re-establish control in formerly rebel-controlled areas.

“President Santos has talked about this for some time,” Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser, told McClatchy. “In particular, concern that any further deterioration in Venezuela presents complications and challenges along their border.”

On Sunday, Colombian voters will decide whether to accept a peace agreement to end more than five decades of war with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as the FARC by its initials in Spanish.

The accord is as much about creating a secure and economically viable environment where former fighters and regular Colombian citizens live and work together as it is about laying down arms. A Venezuelan breakdown could put that in jeopardy if it leads to a flood of refugees crossing the 1,400-mile border needing food and services when the Santos government is already stretched thin.

Smacked by slumping oil prices, Venezuela is teetering on collapse. The oil-rich nation has struggled to provide its citizens with even the most basic necessities. Food riots, long lines at supermarkets and massive street protests have led to calls for the removal of President Nicolás Maduro.

The Obama administration is watching the crisis closely. Secretary of State John Kerry, who has called for a referendum on Maduro’s presidency, met with the Venezuelan president in Colombia this week while attending the ceremonial signing of the peace deal.

“We are deeply concerned about events in Venezuela,” Kerry told reporters Monday before the brief meeting. “We want to be constructive. We are not looking for conflict.”

Congressional leaders have also taken notice. A new report by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service found that the Colombian peace process faces an “enormous challenge” due to the instability in Venezuela.

Venezuela was once one of Colombia’s strongest trading partners, but the relationship broke down during the previous Colombian administration of President Álvaro Uribe. Venezuelan then-President Hugo Chávez worked to restore ties that continued under Maduro. While the two governments continue to have their differences, the Colombian government has been hesitant to criticize the Venezuelan government, considering the crucial role Venezuela played in bringing FARC leaders to the negotiating table.

But now, with the peace deal almost confirmed, the economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is “high on the list” of concerns for Colombian leaders, said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue.

It’s not just the problem of refugees, either. The FARC is not the only violent group in Colombia. Others, such as the criminal gangs known as BACRIM and the National Liberation Army, or ELN, continue to be active and might seek to recruit disgruntled or desperate former FARC members or even refugees who are struggling to find work.

“They are fertile ground for recruitment,” Shifter said.

Rhodes emphasized that the Colombian government is taking the lead on the issue and the White House is not directly engaged, but that it is something Colombia’s government has raised with them. The U.S., however, is helping only indirectly, with efforts such as helping Colombia remove the thousands of mines that litter disputed areas.

“It’s less that there will be some ideological subversion and more that there is not any risk of destabilization at a sensitive time,” Rhodes said of Santos’ concerns.